Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Sliders, settings and other adjustments to make the game more realistic.
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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:13 am

Did more programming. We're now looking at average yards after catch/yards after 1st hit, although I still have to find NFL stats on those for comparison.

Also looking at % of drops by WRs.

For the kickers, we're pulling the % of kicks which are blocked, as well as the accuracy from 50+ yards.

And I also pulled a stat for "active players".....the number of players who got into at least one game. In the NFL, this number is typically about 1885. I believe this will be effected by the amount of injuries in a league, as well as player stamina (how often they have to come out of the game for fatigue.)

I need to compare info for sacks and penalties....I'm pulling it but neglected to put it in the report.

I work tomorrow during the day, so won't be working on this till later. I'd be interested in continuing to hear about results others are getting. Also, wondering if my code takes a long time to run for those who have older computers?

Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

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superben21
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby superben21 » Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:36 am

Same franchise as before except with the updated Analyzer.

Code: Select all

Results
-------
------------------Parity---------------
Average wins by division champ:  10.875
(NFL average                  :  11.25)
---------------------------------------
# of teams with < 4 victories :  1
(NFL norm                     :  3)
---------------------------------------
Number of blowouts (28+ points):  13
(NFL norm                      :  22)
---------------------------------------
Number of shutouts             :  2
(NFL norm                      :  9)
---------------------------------------

------------Playcall balance-----------
# Pass-heavy teams (> 59% pass):  2
(NFL norm                      :   6)
---------------------------------------
# Run-heavy teams (< 41% pass) :  0
(NFL norm                      :   0)
---------------------------------------
# Pass/run balanced (41%-59%)  :  30
(NFL norm                      :   26)
---------------------------------------
Total pass:  16355
Total run :  14931
Pass %    :  52
NFL 2011: 17410 pass, 13971 run
55% pass
---------------------------------------
Number of 4000-yard passers    :  0
(NFL norm                      :  7)
---------------------------------------
Pass completion %              :  58
(NFL norm                      :  60.1)
----------------Rushing----------------
Number of 1000-yard rushers    :  27
(NFL norm                      :  16)
Average after 1st hit          :  0.964126559714795
(NFL norm                      :    )

---------------Receiving---------------
Average yards after catch      :  3.3949449125081
(NFL norm                      :    )
Drops per thrown-at            :  0.0760479041916168
(NFL norm                      :    )

--------------Fumbles------------------
WR/TE Fumble per touch         :  0.0220349967595593
(NFL norm                      :  .024)
---------------------------------------
RB Fumble per touch            :  0.0113584137614077
(NFL norm                      :  .03113)
---------------------------------------
--------------Kicking------------------
Blocked FGs %                  :  0.852514919011083
(NFL norm                      :   2.21)
---------------------------------------
50+ yards accuracy %           :  14.2857142857143
(NFL norm                      :   64)
---------------------------------------
Active players                 :  1442
(NFL norm                      :   1885)
---------------------------------------


torontogrudlies wrote:Also, wondering if my code takes a long time to run for those who have older computers?

I have an 03 xp which I still run everything on. This takes me less than ten seconds to complete from start to finish. Its really nice.
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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Sun Jan 15, 2012 9:56 pm

More changes. Added sacks and interceptions, and # of penalties.

I've also begun experimenting with altering ratings, and reviewing the effects it will have on a season. Thus far, I looked at RB fumbles. They were low, about 1% compared to about 3% NFL rate. I found that I had to reduce the carry attribute by 50 points or more to get this close to the NFL rate. This is with simming a whole season, so I don't know what this will look like when I actually play vs. the CPU.

This leads me to a few questions. The CAR attribute is the obvious one which comes to mind when talking about fumble rates. Are there other attributes, either with the RB or with the players around/opposite him, which might also have an effect? And what are some of the attributes which I might want to look at for other stats?
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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:26 pm

Poll question for all: in your franchises, what are the RB's typical carry attributes? And if you play non-simmed games, how often do you fumble?

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Danchat
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby Danchat » Mon Jan 16, 2012 1:08 pm

torontogrudlies wrote:Poll question for all: in your franchises, what are the RB's typical carry attributes? And if you play non-simmed games, how often do you fumble?


Usually young running backs are in the 70s, RBs in their prime are in the 80s, and the older RBs are in the 90s. The fumbling is rare, especially for the WRs and TEs, RBs fumble sometimes once a game, very rarely twice.
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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Mon Jan 16, 2012 10:41 pm

Moving forward, now that I've got a working app which can grab these stats.

Still lacking a few NFL stats such as yards after first contact/hit (RBs) or yards after catch (WRs). These could be relevant, especially with the RBs, determining how much of their success is due to their own athleticism (BTK attribute and others) and how much is due to a great O-line. I also need to look at injuries, see how many guys are getting injured in the franchise vs. the real-life norm. If anyone knows of places to get these stats, please let me know.

I might be interested in having some testers. I run a custom fictional league so it won't exactly mirror the NFL in some categories, such as pass/run ratios. Others who are using the NFL rosters might be able to give closer input in this regard.

Some other categories, such as how accurate the passers are or how often the runners fumble, ought to pretty much mirror real-life football. It's these which I'm going to tweak, mainly with attribute adjustments, till it balances out and my numbers are pretty close. Then I will likely run a week's worth of total control simulations (doing an entire season like that would take a long, long time) and play with CPU sliders. If I'm successful with that, then I'll play a few games and mess with the human sliders.

Also, while all the code is fresh in my head, I may start working on the Tuesday Morning app concurrently.

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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:21 pm

Yards after contact for RBs....so far I figured up a very tentative estimate, 2.7 average per run. This was based on a chart I found of the top 30 RBs from the 2009 season. This type of stat is harder to find...

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superben21
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby superben21 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:56 pm

torontogrudlies wrote:I also need to look at injuries, see how many guys are getting injured in the franchise vs. the real-life norm. If anyone knows of places to get these stats, please let me know.


Here is some of what you we're looking for I believe...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... ious-years

NFL.com wrote:In a report released Friday called "Dangers of the Game of Football," the NFLPA says injuries increased from 3.2 to 3.7 per week per team and the share of players injured increased to 63 percent compared to a 2002-09 average of 59 percent.

The report also shows that 13 percent of all injuries required players to be placed on injured reserve this season, compared to an average of 10 percent for 2002-09. The union says that indicates the injuries which are occurring are more serious than in past years.

The NFL also compiles such data. Its numbers also show more players on IR than in recent years: 464 for the entire season, up from 388 the previous year, 416 in 2008 and 413 in 2007.

The report shows that 37.7 percent of all injuries caused players to miss games, which was down .7 percent from the 2002-09 average. And 30 percent of players missed at least some game time, up 1 percent.


If you need me for anything else let me know. :)
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torontogrudlies
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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:00 am

Thanks! Now I can look at injuries as well....

Ok, so in my simming of entire seasons...as someone alluded to earlier in this discussion, the sim engine probably only takes certain things into account and disregards others.

Case in point:

To achieve a more realistic rate of fumbles by running backs, I lowered the CARry attribute significantly. In sims, and in total control simulation, this brought about a higher fumble rate.

But, I then wanted to address wide receiver yards after catch. Logic tells me that if I raise the receivers BTK (break tackle) and/or lower DBs' TAK (tackling) this number should go up. However, in the sims, it didn't move. Still testing with total control sim.

If the two types of sims are just too far apart, I wouldn't be averse to just total control simming everything.

For testing purposes, I've been simming a week's worth of games, as the total control mode would take forever to go thru a whole season. A week's worth of stats is still fairly decent to look at some of these averages and notice any differences.

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Re: Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:27 pm

Just wondering if anyone was able to use this?


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