Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Sliders, settings and other adjustments to make the game more realistic.
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torontogrudlies
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Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

Postby torontogrudlies » Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:16 pm

As a partial blueprint for what a typical season should look like, I use the following which I snagged from the September 6, 2010 issue of ESPN magazine:

Code: Select all

In a typical NFL season there are...

149 missed field goals
789 field goals
15 safeties
2488 kickoffs
13 punt return TDs
22 blowouts (games decided by 28 points or more)
9 shutouts
15 kick return TDs
1885 players with at least one game
2412 punts
1117 sacks
32011 plays from scrimmage
3629 penalty flags
27055 tackles
26 two-point conversions
1218 TDs
27 game-winning field goals (coming in last 2 minutes or OT)

8192 balls used
315 replay reviews
113 calls reversed



(although those last three aren't really relevant to what we're doing here) And also, more figures are needed, such as number of fumbles, INTs, blocked FGs, injuries and the like.

Analyzing a league for parity, balance and realism

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torontogrudlies
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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby torontogrudlies » Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:16 pm

I'm looking to get balanced realism--CPU vs. CPU simmed, CPU vs. CPU total control sim, me vs. CPU should all produce similar results. Ratings and sliders will be adjusted to achieve this. Coach's settings such as run vs. pass selection also should lead to NFL-like results over the course of a season.

If the CPU 2011 Rams take on the CPU 2011 Packers, Rams should not come close to winning. By the same measure, if I take control of the 2011 Rams and take on the CPU Packers, my results should be similar (and frustrating) unless I get some very lucky bounces.

My league is fictional, I'm dealing with the Toronto Grudlies vs. the Detroit Stallions vs. the Cleveland Shockers, etc. so I don't have real-life players and games to compare against. In part, I will have to look at individual and team OVRs.... if my team is low 80's and taking on a team with low 90's OVRs, I should expect to have a long afternoon.

This is somewhat of a touchy subject for me, as I'm simultaneously seeking to put less focus on OVRs and ratings in my GMing and coaching. Player trades/signings, and other decisions on personnel should be made not by looking for the guy with 95 OVR, but by looking at available statistics.

My present state of realism: my Grudlies have run the table, 18-0 and about to play in the Super Bowl. I don't feel cheated in the realism department though, because 7 or 8 of these games (including playoffs) hinged upon the result of a single play (and in the playoff game, CPU had the ball twice in the final two minutes with an opportunity to win it.)

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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby superben21 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:10 pm

Very interesting. To keep me involved in a franchise I have to lose a couple or have a bunch of close games. Otherwise I get bored. In my latest 'chise, I play as the Browns, I went 12-4 including two losses to the Ravens. (They're team was stacked with AP, Andre Johnson, Deshawn Jackson, and Jason Witten with a mediocre Sanchez at QB) The Ravens also went 12-4 and thus I got the five seed in the playoffs. I played a Bills team with round one who had gone 9-7 and I won 23-0. :) I played the Ravens round two and this time I came out firing and was up 28-0 nearing half time when they started a comeback. I ended up winning a 50-44 shootout. Long story short I won both the Championship and the Superbowl on game winning field goals. I'd say this was the funnest/best season I've ever had.

Back to what you were saying though. It sure would be nice for my LE (Cliff Avril) not to get 39 sacks while I'm playing as the FS. Its just so not realistic to get 12 sacks as a team a game. If you could find a way to get all those numbers right, I'm sure it would be loads of fun. I'll be watching :D
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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby torontogrudlies » Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:20 pm

I'm curious, if you were to sim an entire season of your team, are the results the same regarding the individual/team sacks? Be cautious, if you try this it could overwrite your stats in your Stats folder, so you'd probably want to back that up as well as using a backup of your franchise....

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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby Rixster67r » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:50 am

I think the only real way of getting more realistic stats is most players overalls need to be lowered. Ea and everyone else (including myself) have the players too closely rated. There needs to be a big jump between average and a star.
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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby superben21 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:20 pm

I'll sim a season and keep you posted as to what happens, I did change my sliders this season to get less drops and a more accurate completion percentage. So far its working wonderfully.
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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby torontogrudlies » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:35 pm

There are about 950 FG attempts in an NFL season. On average, about 21 of these are blocked.
(possibly altering the kickers' speed or acceleration will adjust this total in league sims)

14025 carries per season, 750 of which are fumbled
10200 catches, 325 of these are fumbled

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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby torontogrudlies » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:39 pm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com lets me get various stats in CSV format and then work with them. I'm posting the data here as I refine it.

Pass reception to fumble ratio is a little more tricky. The data included QBs and RBs who caught passes, but I believe it's showing me the total number of fumbles by the same players, not necessarily just on the reception. For example, Donovan McNabb caught one pass one year, but it showed 14 fumbles in the same row. So I will have to make estimates with this.

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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby superben21 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:17 pm

Okay so I simmed a season and the defensive stats came back nicely. :D
Leaders were:
Tackles: J. Vilma - 171
Sacks: J. Peppers - 18
Picks: D. Revis - 7

Offensive stats on the other hand didn't quite work out to well.
Completion percentage: A. Rogers - 66%
Passing Yards: R. Fitzpatrick - 3,528
QB Rating: B. Roethlisburger - 102.7
Passing TD's: B Roethlisburger and P. Rivers - 30
Passing Int's: T. Brady and P. Rivers - 5
Rushing Yards: R. Rice - 2455
Rushing TD's: R. Rice 21
Rushing Attempts: 543
Catches: K. Boss - 113
Receiving Yards: A Johnson - 1611
Receiving TD's: C. Johnson - 17

There were 7 runners over 1500 yards and 2 over 2000 yards. After Ray Rice the next closest had 420 attempts. That's 123 less than Rice! The QB stats seem to be way low while the rb stats are way to high. The receiver stats don't seem to bad though. What sliders would you guys suggest changing? Or would it be attributes? Thanks!
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Re: Franchise guide for the Grudlies universe

Postby RevanFan » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:59 pm

superben21 wrote:Okay so I simmed a season and the defensive stats came back nicely. :D
Leaders were:
Tackles: J. Vilma - 171
Sacks: J. Peppers - 18
Picks: D. Revis - 7

Offensive stats on the other hand didn't quite work out to well.
Completion percentage: A. Rogers - 66%
Passing Yards: R. Fitzpatrick - 3,528
QB Rating: B. Roethlisburger - 102.7
Passing TD's: B Roethlisburger and P. Rivers - 30
Passing Int's: T. Brady and P. Rivers - 5
Rushing Yards: R. Rice - 2455
Rushing TD's: R. Rice 21
Rushing Attempts: 543
Catches: K. Boss - 113
Receiving Yards: A Johnson - 1611
Receiving TD's: C. Johnson - 17

There were 7 runners over 1500 yards and 2 over 2000 yards. After Ray Rice the next closest had 420 attempts. That's 123 less than Rice! The QB stats seem to be way low while the rb stats are way to high. The receiver stats don't seem to bad though. What sliders would you guys suggest changing? Or would it be attributes? Thanks!

You might want to change each individual coach's RB1/RB2 setting, as well as sub settings and ratings. Also, try changing the coach's run/pass percentages.
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