Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Sliders, settings and other adjustments to make the game more realistic.
jose21crisis
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Theory: Catches in Traffic are based on 2 factors.

Postby jose21crisis » Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:42 pm

I was thinking a bit. On some CPU vs. CPU games, as well as some Player vs. CPU games to a lesser extend, I sometimes see defenders clearly catch the ball, then all of a sudden the ball pops out of their hands. Like, they dropped them for no reason other than a defender was close. That was annoying me as it killed drives and completion %. But it got me to think. Why are they dropping the ball when they clearly got possession of the thing. Is not like they got hit hard to force a drop, their assigned defender was just close to them and suddenly they let it go without a hit.

I started looking around a bit. Madden NFL 08 Gen6 has no reference to Catches In Traffic, but Madden NFL 08 Gen7 does. There is a whole player weapon dedicated to the Catch in Traffic rating. And the image of what the weapon does shows something interesting.
Image
Hi Hines Ward. According to the Possession Receiver weapon in Gen7, to make catches in traffic, you would need to HOLD the Catch button to keep the ball under control. Not just tap it, but hold it.

So I'm thinking, maybe on some plays the CPU "Holds" the catch button (Or catch command in this case), and on some of those dropped passes, the CPU just "taps" the catch command and doesn't complete the full catch. This might also affect Spectacular catches, like the one handed catch animation. Many times I've seen receivers trigger a one handed catch animation, only for him to drop the ball.

Basically, the 2 factors that alter catches in traffic are: The Catch rating, and whenever the catch button/command is held through the full catch animation.

I will test this to see if it affects receivers the way I think it does.
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Theory: Catches in Traffic are based on 2 factors.

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henshao
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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby henshao » Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:35 pm

Be sure to test "Toughness" and "Injury" to see if "tougher" receivers are more likely to hang onto the ball over the middle. Other suspects are strength/break tackle and size

jose21crisis
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Upcoming test: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Sun May 06, 2018 11:56 am

Some of you probably already saw my research on sliders, and how 56 Offensive Aggressiveness gave me great completion percentage numbers. However, one slider I haven't touched a lot is Defensive Aggressivess.

Image
See this chart? This chart determines what kind of Offensive and Defensive Scheme the coach will run. And the logic of it seems pretty simple.
moonbax wrote:West Coast & Contain Passing: (Run <50% / Off. Agg. ≥51)

Vertical Passing & Disrupt Passing: (Run <50% / Off. Agg. ≤50)

Ball Control & Force the Pass: (Run ≥50% / Off. Agg. ≥51)

Establish Run & Shut Down Runs: (Run ≥50% / Off. Agg. ≤50)

jose21crisis wrote:
  • Vertical Passing: This happens if the Offensive Pass/Run Ratio is Pass-biased (51% or more) and the Offensive Aggressiveness is Low (50 or less). This would mean that the team relies on stretching the defense by sending multiple receivers in deep routes, forcing one on one situations deep on Streak, Fades or Post routes, in which the QB would hit the receiver. Because of the constant threat of a deep pass, the defense is forced to play off the line, opening the running game.
  • West Coast: This happens if the Offensive Pass/Run Ratio is Pass-biased (51% or more) and the Offensive Aggressiveness is High (51 or more).
    This scheme relies on quick timing routes by shifty receivers. Rather than stretching the defense and producing huge gains throw after throw, the pass are quick and short, gaining some yardage pass after pass. Dink and dunk all the way to the first down marker, repeat as necessary.
  • Establish Run: This happens if the Offensive Pass/Run Ratio is Run-biased (50% or less) and the Offensive Aggressiveness is Low (50 or less).
    This scheme is a classic. The team will use the Running Game to force the defense to respect the Run. Then they would use the passing game, because the opposing team is force to respect the pass, but can't leave the run unprotected.
  • Ball Control: This happens if the Offensive Pass/Run Ratio is Run-biased (50% or less) and the Offensive Aggressiveness is High (51 or more).
    This scheme is an alternate version of the Establish Run. The team will first use the passing game to open up holes in the running game. They will proceed to use those lanes with their running game until the defense becomes aware of it. Then they will set up play action, which forces the defense to always have to be prepare to cover every option.

However, something I find BS is that altering OFFENSIVE Pass/Run Ratio and OFFENSIVE Aggressiveness also alters the Defensive scheme. EA has been known for BS but I'm not buying what that chart is selling. My theory is that EA (Being EA) hooked up the Defensive Schemes to the Offensive elements, which is wrong. Here's my break down of what each defensive scheme should look like.
jose21crisis wrote:
  • Contain Passing: This happens if the Defensive Pass/Run Ratio is Pass-biased (51% or more) and the Defensive Aggressiveness is Low (50 or less).
    The team will use more coverage plays and drop more personnel in coverage to protect against the pass.
  • Disrupt Passing: This happens if the Defensive Pass/Run Ratio is Pass-biased (51% or more) and the Defensive Aggressiveness is High (51 or more). The team will use blitzes to force the QB to dump it off quickly. This could result in errant passes or turnovers.
  • Shut Down Runs: This happens if the Defensive Pass/Run Ratio is Run-biased (50% or less) and the Defensive Aggressiveness is Low (50 or less). The team protects against the running game by calling upon their base defense to stop it, forcing the teams to go to the air to get any yardage.
  • Force The Pass: This happens if the Defensive Pass/Run Ratio is Run-biased (50% or less) and the Defensive Aggressiveness is High (51 or more).
    The team thinks their Defensive Backs are capable of covering the receivers without problem. This allows them to use 8 man fronts to take away the run and force the offense to go to the air.

However, is that right? I have no idea, and is the reason why this post exists. I'll be doing a total of 8 games, all with different combinations of defensive schemes. The teams will be the same, Eagles vs. Browns, but on each game the Eagles (My team of observation) will be running a different defensive scheme. Each scheme will be ran twice to better record results. The information I'll be targeting are
  • Man/Zone Ratio. Do they run more Man or more Zone?
  • Defensive Formations. Do they run more 4-2-5 or 3-3-5? Do they run more Dime or Quarter?
  • 4 Man Rush vs. 5+ Man Rush. When they start blitzing more people?
  • Subpackages vs. Base. Do they like their base defense a bit too much or they prefer using Nickel?

The sliders I will use for the tests are:
  • 51% Pass/Run, 53 Aggressiveness.
  • 51% Pass/Run, 48 Aggressiveness.
  • 49% Pass/Run, 51 Aggressiveness.
  • 49% Pass/Run, 48 Aggressiveness.
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jose21crisis
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Test 1: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Mon May 07, 2018 7:43 pm

All right, the first test for this involves a Browns vs. Eagles game. Both teams have a West Coast Offensive Philosophy, with 56 Offensive Aggresiveness resulting in shorter passes. The Eagles are running the Titans playbook, the playbook that mostly resembles a Jim Schwartz defense. It has a 4-3 set, a 46 Bear which very closely resembles a "Wide 9" defensive set, Nickels 4-2-5 and 3-3-5, Dime 4-1-6, Dollar 3-2-6 and Quarter 3-1-7 (as well as it's 3 Deep variant). I'll register the defensive calls by the Eagles for 30 minutes. In this test the sample size will be 2 quarters, both 15 minutes.

Today's set is: 51% Pass/Run, 53 Aggressiveness. (My supposition for "Disrupt Passing")

In 38 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 24 snaps in the 4-3 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 Bear set.
  • 3 snaps in the 4-2-5 Nickel set.
  • 1 snap in the 3-3-5 Nickel set.
  • 6 snaps in the 4-1-6 Dime set.
  • 2 Snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter set.
The Eagles sure liked their base defense a lot. More than what I'd like.

In 38 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 23 snaps in Man Coverage.
  • 15 snaps in Zone Coverage.
More Man on this one.

In 38 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 2 snaps rushing 3 players.
  • 25 snaps rushing 4 players.
  • 9 snaps rushing 5 players.
  • 2 snaps rushing 6 players.
The amount of blitzes here is decent.

I will do the test for the lower Aggressiveness version to compare and determine which one ends up being "Contain Passing" and which one is "Disrupt Passing".
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jose21crisis
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Test 2: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Mon May 07, 2018 8:43 pm

Test 2 is up. For this test, it involves a Browns vs. Eagles game. Both teams have a West Coast Offensive Philosophy, with 56 Offensive Aggresiveness resulting in shorter passes. The Eagles are running the Titans playbook, the playbook that mostly resembles a Jim Schwartz defense. It has a 4-3 set, a 46 Bear which very closely resembles a "Wide 9" defensive set, Nickels 4-2-5 and 3-3-5, Dime 4-1-6, Dollar 3-2-6 and Quarter 3-1-7 (as well as it's 3 Deep variant). I'll register the defensive calls by the Eagles for 30 minutes. In this test the sample size will be 2 quarters, both 15 minutes.

Today's set is: 51% Pass/Run, 48 Aggressiveness. (My supposition for "Contain Passing").

In 31 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 15 snaps in the 4-3 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 set.
  • 7 snaps in the 4-2-5 Nickel set.
  • 4 snaps in the 4-1-6 Dime set.
  • 4 snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter set.
All right now, more snaps in subpackages.

In 31 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 13 snaps in Man Coverage.
  • 18 snaps in Zone Coverage
Now they got more biased to Zone.

Note, I forgot to write in the last test in which snaps there were 2 rushers but 2 players in QB Contain. I counted them as 4 players rushing, as that is how the game actually accounts it. Same with 1 rusher, 2 containment players. I'll do so here as well, but will note how many times there were players in contain.

In 31 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 4 snaps rushing 3 players.
  • 22 snaps rushing 4 players. In 2 of those snaps, they rushed 2 players and kept 2 for containment.
  • 5 snaps rushing 5 players. In one of those snaps, they rushed 3 players and kept 2 for containment.
  • 1 snap rushing 6 players.
  • 1 snap rushing 8 players.
Alright then. More people dropping back in coverage.
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jose21crisis
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Test 1 & Test 2 Conclusions: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Mon May 07, 2018 9:00 pm

So let's analyze both tests when the defense is Pass biased, first of all the defense's formation on each snap.

With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 68% of the team's defensive snaps, they used their Base Defense.
  • 32% of the team's defensive snaps were in any kind of subpackage, of which:
    • 11% of the total defensive snaps were in a Nickel set.
    • 16% of the total defensive snaps were in a Dime set.
    • 5% of the total defensive snaps were in a Quarter set.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 52% of the team's defensive snaps, they used their Base Defense.
  • 48% of the team's defensive snaps were in any kind of subpackage, of which:
    • 22% of the total defensive snaps were in a Nickel set.
    • 13% of the total defensive snaps were in a Dime set.
    • 13% of the total defensive snaps were in a Quarter set.

I can conclude that, at least with higher Pass defense, the team will prefer Subpackages with Lower Defensive Aggressiveness.

Next, the type of coverage the defense will use. With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 60% of the team's defensive snaps, they used Man Coverage.
  • The remaining 40% was in Zone Coverage.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 42% of the team's defensive snaps, they used Man Coverage.
  • The remaining 58% was in Zone Coverage.

I can conclude that, at least with higher Pass defense, the team will prefer more Man Coverage with Higher Defensive Aggressiveness.

Finally, how many pass rushers will go for the QB. I will note that players in QB Contain will be counted as rushers for this count's purposes, as they aren't serving a coverage function, instead just delaying their rush until the QB is outside of the pocket. At the same time, I did not keep count of how many times the defense had 3 down linemen, but rushed 4 players. With higher Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 5% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush just 3 players.
  • In 66% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush 4 players.
  • In the remaining 29%, the defense will rush 5 or more players.

With lower Aggressiveness we have that:
  • In 12% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush just 3 players.
  • In 71% of the team's defensive snaps, the defense will rush 4 players.
  • In the remaining 17%, the defense will rush 5 or more players.

I can conclude that, at least with higher Pass defense, the team will prefer more players dropping back in coverage with Lower Defensive Aggressiveness.

With this I can conclude that:
  • A Pass Biased defense with High Defensive Aggression is, indeed, a "Disrupt Passing" defense.
  • Therefor, a Pass Biased defense with Low Defensive Aggression is a "Contain Passing" defense.

EDIT: The part that says that Higher Aggressiveness = More Man Coverage actually makes sense. This is a quote from Dan Quinn from one of Moonbax's posts about Aggressiveness:
Quinn, though, was always careful to say that aggressiveness could be defined in ways other than just what the average football fan — whose idea of aggressiveness often is defined by how often a team blitzes — might think.

Here’s a quote from Quinn prior to the season:

'I think that we just have a mindset that we like to play aggressive. Even if you play tight coverage or you are playing man-to-man or something like that, it might feel like it’s more aggressive. But that’s certainly my nature of being a defensive line coach. I’ve been a defensive line coach for a long time. That’s part of my background to play that style and that’s how I like to be and coach does too. So maybe they are feeling that as well.'

The key part there is where he defines aggressiveness as playing man-to-man or tight coverage.
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henshao
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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby henshao » Mon May 07, 2018 10:44 pm

More aggressiveness, more man-to-man...

Consider hypothetically you have five prime Champ Baileys on your roster. Is there a reason to call anything other than a 6 man rush every play, with their five eligible receivers effectively neutralized by man-to-man coverage? Coverage and pass rushing are only half of the story on any given playcall. You can rush six but drop everyone else into a cover 3 variant, which might be considered conservative, or you could rush six with all your other defenders "on an island." The risk with the former is that almost any short pass is likely to be completed, but a touchdown is unlikely. The risk with the latter is the ultimate feast or famine. If your guys execute, you will at minimum get an incomplete and more than likely a sack, sack-fumble or interception. If the wrong guy stumbles in coverage and the QB lobs it over him, you're giving up a TD.

jose21crisis
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Re: Jose21crisis' Attribute Research

Postby jose21crisis » Tue May 08, 2018 4:07 pm

henshao wrote:More aggressiveness, more man-to-man...

Consider hypothetically you have five prime Champ Baileys on your roster. Is there a reason to call anything other than a 6 man rush every play, with their five eligible receivers effectively neutralized by man-to-man coverage? Coverage and pass rushing are only half of the story on any given playcall. You can rush six but drop everyone else into a cover 3 variant, which might be considered conservative, or you could rush six with all your other defenders "on an island." The risk with the former is that almost any short pass is likely to be completed, but a touchdown is unlikely. The risk with the latter is the ultimate feast or famine. If your guys execute, you will at minimum get an incomplete and more than likely a sack, sack-fumble or interception. If the wrong guy stumbles in coverage and the QB lobs it over him, you're giving up a TD.


This right here is pretty much the difference between the 2 pass related philosophies. Contain Passing is more "Bend, but don't break". The opponent can complete passes, but the idea is to prevent giving up a big play. Disrupt Passing relies on pressure to force the QB into making mistakes, forcing him to throw the ball before he wants to, resulting in errant passes, sacks, interceptions or incompletions. The risk is giving up the big plays. I should note that test 1 through 4 are "Proof of Concept" tests, in which basically I watch if the CPU does the expected, like dropping more people in coverage for "Contain Passing" or sending more rushers in "Disrupt Passing". In tests 5 through 8, I'll do very similar test, but I'll examine every single defensive play call to see what specifically the CPU calls. For example, they could call Cover 2 Zone coverages with 4 rushers out of the 4-3 sets, more Cover 1 Man with 5 rushers out of the 4-2-5 set and so on.
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jose21crisis
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Test 3: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Tue May 08, 2018 8:02 pm

Time for test 3. Once again, it involves a Browns vs. Eagles game. Both teams have a West Coast Offensive Philosophy, with 56 Offensive Aggresiveness resulting in shorter passes. The Eagles are running the Titans playbook, the playbook that mostly resembles a Jim Schwartz defense. It has a 4-3 set, a 46 Bear which very closely resembles a "Wide 9" defensive set, Nickels 4-2-5 and 3-3-5, Dime 4-1-6, Dollar 3-2-6 and Quarter 3-1-7 (as well as it's 3 Deep variant). I'll register the defensive calls by the Eagles for 30 minutes. In this test the sample size will be 2 quarters, both 15 minutes.

Today's set: 49% Pass/Run, 53 Aggressiveness. (Used to be my supposition to "Force the Pass", but now analyzing the descriptions a bit more, I think it is "Shut Down Runs".)

In 37 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 23 snaps in the 4-3 set.
  • 0 snap in the 46 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 Bear set.
  • 4 snaps in the 4-2-5 Nickel set.
  • 2 snaps in the 4-2-5 Strong Nickel set.
  • 4 snaps in the 4-1-6 Dime set.
  • 1 snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter set.
  • 2 snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter 3 Deep set.
This is the reason why I think this could be Shut Down Runs. 23 snaps out of the base set, plus 1 snap out of the 46 Bear. That's 65% of the snaps out of the base defense, a percentage similar to Disrupt Passing. I won't conclude to anything just yet however, as I still need to test Low Aggressiveness.

In 37 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 25 snaps in Man Coverage.
  • 12 snaps in Zone Coverage
As expected from the test on Disrupt Passing, the defense called upon for more man coverage, or a more aggressive defense, in this situation.

In 37 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 1 snaps rushing 3 players.
  • 26 snaps rushing 4 players. In 2 of those snaps, they rushed 2 players and kept 2 for containment.
  • 8 snaps rushing 5 players.
  • 2 snaps rushing 8 players.
Short story here is, they didn't really blitz a lot.

I'll test Low Aggressiveness and show my conclusions after said test.
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jose21crisis
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Test 4: What does Defensive Aggressiveness do in the big scale of things?

Postby jose21crisis » Tue May 08, 2018 8:59 pm

Time for test 4. And again, it involves a Browns vs. Eagles game. Both teams have a West Coast Offensive Philosophy, with 56 Offensive Aggresiveness resulting in shorter passes. The Eagles are running the Titans playbook, the playbook that mostly resembles a Jim Schwartz defense. It has a 4-3 set, a 46 Bear which very closely resembles a "Wide 9" defensive set, Nickels 4-2-5 and 3-3-5, Dime 4-1-6, Dollar 3-2-6 and Quarter 3-1-7 (as well as it's 3 Deep variant). I'll register the defensive calls by the Eagles for 30 minutes. In this test the sample size will be 2 quarters, both 15 minutes.

Today's set: 49% Pass/Run, 48 Aggressiveness. (Used to be my supposition to "Shut Down Runs", but now analyzing the descriptions a bit more, I think it is "Force the Pass".)

In 34 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 18 snaps in the 4-3 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 set.
  • 1 snap in the 46 Bear set.
  • 6 snaps in the 4-2-5 Nickel set.
  • 1 snaps in the 4-2-5 Strong Nickel set.
  • 3 snaps in the 4-1-6 Dime set.
  • 2 snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter set.
  • 2 snaps in the 3-1-7 Quarter 3 Deep set.
Fewer base defense snaps now, 59% of the snaps out of the base defense or a 46 set (which is still base personnel).

In 34 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 22 snaps in Man Coverage.
  • 12 snaps in Zone Coverage
Irregularity here. Remember when we studied the Pass biased defenses, and low Aggressiveness gave us more Zone defense? Apparently, that's only on Zone.

In 34 defensive snaps, the Eagles ran:
  • 2 snaps rushing 3 players.
  • 23 snaps rushing 4 players. In 4 of those snaps, they rushed 2 players and kept 2 for containment.
  • 7 snaps rushing 5 players. In 1 of those snaps, they rushed 3 players and kept 2 for containment.
  • 1 snap rushing 6 players.
  • 1 snap rushing 7 players.
Once again, not a lot of blitzes, but a few more contains.
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